Indonesia’s stance on the South China Sea is a complex balancing act, distinguishing itself from other claimants by asserting it has no territorial disputes but firmly defending its sovereign rights over the Natuna Islands and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), Indonesia maintained a pragmatic approach, prioritizing economic cooperation while still showing assertiveness when its maritime interests, particularly around Natuna, were challenged.
Jokowi’s administration, especially in its early years with former Minister Susi Pudjiastuti, adopted a robust “sink the vessels” policy against illegal fishing, including those from China, to demonstrate resolve in the South China Sea. The renaming of parts of its EEZ as the “North Natuna Sea” also underscored its sovereignty. However, a broader shift towards economic cooperation, particularly with China, became more apparent later in his tenure.
Now, under President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s posture in the South China Sea is being closely watched for signs of continuity or divergence. Early indications suggest Prabowo is attempting to maintain a balance, similar to Jokowi, between asserting sovereignty and fostering economic ties with major powers, notably China, while avoiding explicit alignment with either the US or China.
However, some analysts note that Prabowo’s approach might introduce more ambiguity. His early foreign policy moves, including his first overseas trip to Beijing, and a joint statement with China that mentioned “overlapping maritime claims,” raised eyebrows. While the Foreign Ministry quickly clarified, denying any recognition of China’s nine-dash line, such instances create scrutiny over Indonesia’s resolve in the South China Sea.
Recent reports also indicate Prabowo’s proposal for “joint development” with China in “overlapping maritime areas,” which some experts argue could legally compromise Indonesia’s sovereign rights, as it implies recognition of a dispute where none exists under UNCLOS. This contrasts with Indonesia’s long-held position that it is not a claimant state in the traditional sense, but defends its EEZ.